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J
OHANNESBURG is where the deals are made. It's the most powerful commercial
centre on the African continent. There's hardly a major international company
doing serious business in sub-Saharan Africa that has not looked to Johannesburg
as the gateway.
A brief history
Overview of Joburg
For all the facts and figures of the city, click here to view a slideshow |
Johannesburg is the economic powerhouse of South Africa, and southern Africa.
Founded in 1886 with the discovery of gold on the Reef, Johannesburg has grown into a world-class city: the provincial capital of Gauteng and the financial centre of the country.
It is home to JSE Limited, the largest stock exchange on the continent and the 16th biggest in the world. Johannesburg generates 16.5 percent of the country's wealth and employs 12 percent of the national workforce.
More than 70 percent of South African companies have their headquarters here.
The current metropolitan area of Johannesburg - formed in 2000 by the merger of five previously independent municipal areas - covers a total of 1 644kmē, with an average density of 1 962 persons per kmē.
Johannesburg, with a population of 3,2 million spread across 1 006 930 households, is characterised by its youthful residents, with 42 percent of the population under the age of 24 and 49 percent under the age of 34.
The city's population is also growing, largely as a result of migration from other parts of the country, and the number of households is increasing, placing huge demands on the City's economic and social infrastructure.
It has a financial, municipal, roads and telecommunications infrastructure that matches that of leading world cities, with the City Deep freight terminal - classified as one of the larger inland ports in the world - handling 30 percent of South Africa's exports. There are 7 519km of roads in Johannesburg, of which 6 614km are tarred.
The city also has two active power stations.
Shifts since 1994
With the advent of democracy, the city has undergone significant restructuring, leading up to the adoption of Joburg 2030 , a visionary strategy aimed at boosting investment and economic growth.
In 1994 - the first democratic local government elections - local authorities were highly fragmented: white local authorities spent R600 per capita per annum and were 90 percent self-sufficient while their black counterparts spent R100 per capita per annum and were 10 percent self-sufficient.
In 1995 various local authorities were amalgamated to form four councils co-ordinated by a central metropolitan council under a single tax base. To support this tax base, the municipal boundaries of Johannesburg were extended to include Sandton, Randburg, Soweto, Alexandra and Orange Farm.
However, this system was still highly fragmented and much duplication took place. By the 1997/1998 financial year, the effects of this fragmentation were being keenly felt, with the City experiencing a R300-million deficit, a R405-million overdraft and a negligible capital expenditure budget.
A new approach was required and, in 1999, a city manager was appointed and Igoli 2002, a three-year plan to turn the City's finances around, was devised.
In 2000, Johannesburg was restructured to become a single metropolitan authority and elections were held for an executive mayor and unified local government. Again the local municipal boundaries were expanded, this time to include Modderfontein and Midrand.
Since then, the City has enjoyed a financial turnaround, with the creation of credible and stable operating environment. This stability, strong centralised co-ordination and oversight has allowed the City to play a crucial role in building the economy, and implementing policies and structures to support economic growth and poverty alleviation.
This success was brought about by:
- The adoption of Igoli 2002 in 1999, aimed at rectifying pressing financial problems. One outcome was to create the organisational space and budget for the council to adopt a more hands-on role for the City in the sphere of economic development.
- The creation of the office of executive mayor, and the outlining of a list of mayoral priorities to "stimulate economic growth and address the problems of unemployment and inequality between the rich and poor". This required the City to be an agent for economic growth.
- The adoption of Joburg 2030 , an economic development plan aimed at achieving a better quality of life for all the city's residents. This long-term strategy focuses on getting fundamentals in the economic and investment chain right. It identified the three core mechanisms to achieve this: creating a conducive environment; improving the efficiency of investment; and accelerating business activities.
From then to now
As the most important metro in terms of contribution to provincial and national gross domestic product (GDP), Johannesburg is a leading and robust market for investors, distributors and retailers in Gauteng.
On average, Johannesburg's residents enjoy a higher standard of living than people living in South Africa's other major cities.
Compared with other cities, particularly Cape Town, eThekwini (greater Durban) and Nelson Mandela (greater Port Elizabeth), Johannesburg is ahead: its markets are growing faster and, on average, its inhabitants are wealthier.
Johannesburg's economy, and its contribution to the national economy, has grown substantially and performed well on all major indicators compared to Tshwane, Ekurhuleni and Gauteng.
Large numbers of people come to the city to find work, as job creation in Johannesburg has been positive over this period, with more people employed today than in 1996. On average, Johannesburg's workforce has more money and skills than before.
However, more people are living in poverty too, as the growing economy attracts people from more depressed areas, increasing the number of the poor and unemployed.
Economic Growth
Johannesburg is delivering on economic growth: an increase in per capita GDP together with an improvement in the distribution of income are two necessary conditions for an improvement in the average standard of living.
Since 1996 Johannesburg has shown positive real GDP growth and its GDP growth rate has outpaced the national growth rate. This is largely due to the dominance of the fast-growing financial and business services sector in Johannesburg's economy, which has consistently outperformed average growth rates.
When the Johannesburg's growth is compared to that of metros such as Cape Town, Nelson Mandela and eThekwini, the city consistently outperforms its counterparts. Its economy is much larger than any of the others and its Gross Value Added (GVA) in 2004 was R204-billion, compared to R150-billion for Cape Town and R123-billion for eThekwini.
Within Johannesburg, the Randburg district shows the highest GDP growth rate (average five percent) while Soweto shows the lowest (a negative growth). There is no automatic correlation between the income of a region and the district's GDP per capita as people commute to work outside of their regions.
Nonetheless, the significant differences in per capita GDP growth show that centres of economic activity are not located in areas that most need the positive impact and the City is addressing this through a variety of economic initiatives .
Buying power
Johannesburg has a higher than average household income that, combined a strong growth in household income, translates into significant purchasing power.
Measuring the index of buying power (IBP) as a percentage of the national total, Johannesburg's IBP in 2004 was 0.14 indicating that 14 percent of demand for goods and services emanated from Johannesburg. The second largest consumer market was Cape Town, with 11 percent. In comparison, eThekwini commanded only nine percent, Ekurhuleni eight percent, Nelson Mandela Metro three percent, and Tshwane with one percent.
Per capita purchases in the retail sector have increased over 1996's figures in virtually all areas.
Sector growth
Services are crucial to Johannesburg's economy, particularly financial and business services. Trade; transport; manufacturing; finance and community services are more important in the city's economy than in the national economy. Primary and secondary sector activity such as agriculture, mining, electricity and construction is less important to the economy of Johannesburg. The financial and business services sector, which has always been the cornerstone of the City's economy, has become relatively more important over the past seven years. The economy is now more concentrated and its growth more dependant on this sector than at any time in Johannesburg's history.
The services sector is the largest contributor to GVA, showing continuous growth, and continues to absorb labour with employment increasing by 49 percent between 1997 and 2004.
The financial sector in Johannesburg outperforms the national economy and all other metros.
Employment and wealth creation
Although Johannesburg is creating wealth, economic growth does not automatically translate into a general improvement in the standard of living.
It is crucial for an economy to grow at a pace faster than the rate at which the population is growing so that there will be more resources available for each person. In addition, it creates new jobs at a rate that will significantly reduce unemployment over time. Permanent employment in the formal sector is probably the most important factor for sustainable improvement in the standard of living, given the benefits associated with a permanent formal job.
Johannesburg also seeks the type of economic growth that is associated with an improvement in the distribution of income in absolute and racial terms, areas it has also performed well.
Johannesburg is making strides on three fronts:
- Its economy is growing faster than the population growth rate.
- There are signs of a positive redistribution of income trend
- Johannesburg is creating a substantial number of new jobs in the right sectors.
Johannesburg's economy is growing faster than the population growth rate. Per household average income is significantly higher than the national or provincial average. In 2004, at current prices, Johannesburg's average household income was R161 656 compared to R130 982 for Gauteng and R79 488 for the entire country. This means that average household income in Johannesburg is almost double that of the national average. In addition, household incomes in Johannesburg have increased at a faster rate than both provincial and national averages.
There are signs of a positive redistribution of income trend. In most countries or regions, there are disparities in income and corresponding living standards. However, South Africa's past policies resulted in a skewed distribution of the benefits of that wealth - related to race and, to a slightly lesser degree, gender.
Using the Gini Coefficient, a widely used measure of income inequality, Johannesburg's distribution of income compares favourably with national and provincial income distribution.
However, the picture shifts when Johannesburg's 2004 Gini Coefficient is compared with that of selected countries. This comparison indicates that the distribution of income in the city is still skewed and there is room for improvement.
Factors that will improve the distribution of income include a steady and strong growth in employment, in the right sectors, such as permanent formal sector jobs in sectors that pay above-average salaries and have retirement, medical and other benefits; and an increase in broad-based Black Economic Empowerment (BBBEE) to increase the ownership of wealth.
Johannesburg is creating a substantial number of new jobs in the right sectors. In a country facing a severe unemployment challenge, understanding where jobs have been created and lost in the local economy takes on special significance. Paradoxically, the more successful an area is in creating jobs the more likely it is to attract an inflow of unemployed people looking for work. The result can be an increase in the unemployment rate, even though the economy is a net creator of jobs.
Employment
Johannesburg has 1,5-million economically active people out of a total population of close to three million. In 1996, just over one million people were employed in the city's formal economy. This grew to 1,33-million in 2004 - a net gain of 317 000 jobs over the seven years, or a 31 percent increase. Between 2003 and 2004 alone, formal sector employment increased by 48 000 jobs. Additionally, the city compares well to other metros, having created more jobs than any other metro between 1996 and 2004.
In 2004 the trade sector was the largest formal employer in the city, closely followed by the finance sector - although in absolute terms, many sectors have created new jobs between 1996 and 2004.
Reviewing the trend sector by sector it is clear trade and financial and business services have been the main drivers increasing employment in the city. The financial and business services sector increased employment by 49 percent between 1997 and 2004. Year-on-year sector growth in 2004 slowed substantially, yet still 18 000 new jobs were created.
The trade sector is also a key source of informal employment. Other large informal employment sectors are the construction and community services sectors. The observable increase in informal employment in the community services sector in the last six years is likely to have been driven at least in part by an increase in the informal provision of support services such as child care, and personal services such as hairdressing.
Higher disposable income levels increase this type of personal expenditure and consequently more people engage in offering these services as demand increases. The informal construction sector has shown a slow and steady increase in employment. This is primarily driven by residential housing demand and can be increased through aggressive stimulation of housing provision in lower income communities, as these are the major clients for informal construction workers.
In 2004 unemployment in Johannesburg was 32 percent - a figure that compares favourably to the provincial rate of 34 percent and the national rate of 40,4 percent. However, this is higher than the 27,6 percent unemployment rate recorded for 1996 for the city and is unacceptably high. It should be noted that the rise in unemployment has taken place despite the increase in the number of jobs, largely as a result of migration as well as the changes in the city boundaries.
As a result, although new jobs have been created, these increases have not been sufficient to offset the increase in the city's economically active population.
Trade
Johannesburg's contribution to South Africa's total exports has increased slightly since the late 1990s, on average from 27 to 28 percent in this millennium.
The city's contribution towards Gauteng exports has also increased marginally over the same period. While its contribution towards exports has remained relatively static over the past nine years, Johannesburg's share of both provincial and national imports has declined notably, dropping from almost 60 percent of Gauteng imports in 1997 to less than 52 percent in 2004 and from 36 percent of national imports in 1998 to less than 30 percent in 2004.
Johannesburg has experienced a trade surplus on only two occasions in the past nine years, in 2001 and 2003. It is more prone to experience trade deficits because of its less diversified export product base and a relatively high and stable import propensity.
By contrast, import volumes at a national and provincial level have been increasing at a faster rate, and by more than the corresponding growth in exports. This may suggest that Johannesburg is becoming more integrated into global markets, and that the city's structural trade deficit is gradually being dismantled.
The wholesale and retail trade and the transport and storage sectors dominate service exports in value terms - each contributes almost 30 percent of total value in 2003. At least 11 large South African wholesale and retail groups have expanded into the rest of Africa. There is a rising trend across all sectors, with particularly strong growth in business services, communications, medical, dental and other. The latter were some four times higher in 2003 than in 1996.
Skills
A strong relationship between levels of education and labour market status, that is, employed versus unemployed and formal market versus informal employment, and earnings is to be expected. This assumes that people are acquiring skills that are worth something in the labour market.
If this assumption is correct then higher levels of education should contribute to higher levels of employment and higher personal incomes. However, many surveys indicate that businesses in Johannesburg find it difficult to employ suitably skilled people. It seems reasonable to assume that there is an unfilled demand for skilled labour, which could result in higher employment if the skills levels of the city's available workforce were to improve.
Since 1996 there has been an improvement in education levels in Johannesburg in absolute terms and in comparison with Gauteng and South Africa.
The Property Market
The Johannesburg property market is increasingly sophisticated and challenging.
The expansion of high-technology and distribution focused industrial activities and the decentralisation of many office-using activities from city centres as well as a robust development cycle over the late 1990s and early 2000s have been major drivers in this regard. There is an entrenched split between the active property markets in the north, and the less active property markets in the south of the metropolitan area. These developments have stimulated worsening traffic congestion and inadequate road infrastructure in the premier nodes, especially along east-west linkages.
A major characteristic of the Johannesburg property market is the remaining division between the wealthy and active northern nodes, and the under-developed and less commercially active southern nodes.
It is important to recognise that nodes and regions within Johannesburg are different markets that cater to different needs and different sectors, and provide unique functions. Nodes themselves are rapidly changing and this has a marked impact on property.
The excitement surrounding new residential developments in the region has been one of the major forces impacting on the retail property supply chain. Non-residential supply is increasing with strong supply trends emerging from industrial and retail space. There has been an encouraging increase in the retail supply in Soweto.
Property-led regeneration has been an important tool in area-based economic initiatives. Direct and indirect stimulation of construction activity is seen as a means to boost economic growth and inward investment, by providing commercial and industrial floor-space, and improving the physical environment. The impact of local government efficiency and policy on real estate indicators, such as prices, can be so strong that it dominates other factors. As a result, deteriorating services, crime and high taxes in many cities have depressed land and property prices.
The depreciation and development incentives afforded by government of late are expected to boost property investment in the Johannesburg inner city in general. This is especially true since the introduction of the Urban Development Zone tax incentive in the inner city.
The provision of bulk infrastructure plays an important role in the spatial distribution of property developments, since property accommodates people and their variety of functions. No existing or new fixed property can function without bulk infrastructure. International experience suggests that development in non-priority areas are often required to finance their own infrastructure. The adoption of an urban edge along with the associated bulk infrastructure costs or penalties will no doubt begin to take effect on the spatial development pattern of greater Johannesburg.
Another important infrastructure dynamic shaping the city's property landscape remains the Gautrain project and the implications this holds for multi modal transport and commercial property nodes.
Commercial property
The levels of economic activity and the location decisions of companies drive the demand for commercial property. In the case of Johannesburg, the business and financial services sector has been at the forefront of growth. Some important fundamental improvements to the office market are taking shape after a number of years of oversupply and poor returns as a result of negative rental growth driven by a competitive environment that placed tenants in strong negotiating positions.
On an aggregate basis, net take up in decentralised Johannesburg is growing. The Johannesburg CBD remains an important arena and it is clear that general investor sentiment has improved. Conditions supporting a commercial property environment continue to be favourable.
Total office stock in the Johannesburg CBD remains the largest in the country at nearly 2-million mē, although in some parts of the CBD, the age of the buildings and the general lack of maintenance have resulted in the office environment becoming unattractive. Other parts of the CBD have actively regenerated. There has however been little new commercial property development in the CBD for over a decade, with the exception of the owner-occupied ABSA campus development of some 40 000m2. Gross A-grade office rentals are some of the lowest available at between R19/m2 and R38/m2, while the prevailing vacancy rate stands at around 22 percent.
Competitive advantages include the inner city's position as a transport hub and its excellent accessibility; good (but aging) infrastructure; lower rentals and rates; and public investment. Weaknesses and threats are 'sinkholes', crime, low property values and a history of poor management.
'Sinkholes' are properties that are slummed, abandoned, overcrowded, poorly maintained, or used for illegal or unsuitable uses, such as shebeens, some clubs, drugs, sweatshops, panel beaters in homes, amongst others.
The mirror image of sinkholes is 'ripple ponds' - providing a ripple effect investment. These lift the adjacent areas by providing an incentive to private investment. Like sinkholes, they can be private (Bank City and Gandhi Square), and public (Metro Mall, the Newtown developments and Constitution Hill).
Private investment in the CBD
Some key dynamics and initiatives of note relate to the five-pillar plan adopted by the City some years ago:
- To decrease and eventually eliminate the sinkholes.
- To increase the ripple pond investments.
- To support the economic sectors.
- To intensify urban management.
- To maintain and upgrade infrastructure.
A new breed of developers has emerged to tackle challenges and entrepreneurial projects at both the residential and commercial end of the spectrum. With office earnings potential remaining muted, 2004 saw the listed sector as net sellers of assets to the new 'turn-around' entrepreneurs, many of whom are investing in residential stock.
Office investments recorded a 4,5 percent rise in value from R1 014/m2 in 2002, to R1 418/m2 in 2003 and with further growth in 2004 expected according to the Investment Property Databank (IPD) report. More importantly, this is the first time positive capital growth was recorded in the city centre since the database's inception in 1995.
Pitched at the new entrepreneur grouping in particular, the Better Buildings Programme is gaining momentum, facilitating a turn around of blighted buildings with significant rates and taxes arrears. The portfolio has grown from 28 buildings to over 50, but the programme is battling to keep pace with demand from potential investors. Luxury apartment conversions are taking place in numerous select "character" buildings in price brackets equivalent to the north.
An area of some 26 city blocks on the eastern end of the CBD, bounded by Jeppe, End, Commissioner and Von Weilligh streets has emerged as a Fashion District. Some 32 buildings in the fashion core occupying a total floor area of 120 000m2 and a combined value of R30-million were identified for potential investments.
Newtown launched a R200-milion 4700m2 private sector mixed-use (retail, commercial and residential) development comprising 3 850m2 of office space at asking rentals of R55/m2, and 850m2 of retails space at around R70/m2.
The Gauteng Tourism Authority relocated from Rosebank in 2005 to take up nearly 50 percent of the office space. Newtown is supported by new traffic infrastructure that includes the Nelson Mandela Bridge to Braamfontein and the M1/Carr Steer interchange.
Tenants in the node include Blue IQ, the Sci-Bono Discovery Centre, a state-of-the-art science exhibition centre, the National Design & Crafts Centre, Museum Africa, Tourism SA, Gauteng's arts and culture department, African restaurant Moyo, the Market Theatre, and other complementary tourism-orientated businesses.
A R100-milion revamp of the Oriental Plaza in Fordsburg just to the west of Newtown was announced and will include a major food court, multi-purpose hall, gym, banking hall, supermarket chain, franchise stores, multi-level parking, cinema complex and hotel.
Letting opportunities at Constitution Hill open for 36 000m2 of office and 2 000m2 of retail space. The Constitution Hill Development Company is open to various development models, including doing the design, obtaining funding, erecting the building and letting the space to interested tenants, as well as facilitating organizations in building their own building under a long-term lease arrangement. The Hyatt group has planned a limited-service hotel on the 9ha site and a variety of government and nongovernmental organisations express interest in office space.
Johannesburg is now designated the largest Urban Development Zone (UDZ)
in the country, comprising just under 18km2 of residential, industrial and commercial areas in and around the central business district. This initiative is expected to boost current efforts to regenerate Johannesburg's inner city, as developers and property investors take advantage of tax concessions to build and renovate buildings in designated areas.
The industrial property sector
Following the growth of northwestern Johannesburg, light industries have emerged to support the residential boom. This has helped spawn renewed demand in such places as Lazer Park, Northriding and KyaSands. As well as providing a massive labour pool for emerging business, major proposed developments in close proximity such as Cosmo City could well increase this demand - which typically is in the form of household products and accessories, furniture products and related goods and services.
To the northeast, the industrial property market of Midrand appears to be improving after a lull over the past four years as a result of the development of new modern nodes and a general decline in some of the key clusters - primarily IT related. New developments brought to market are generally fully let. One of the advantages for new developments is that land prices of between R150-R280/m2 are lower than those of other areas where comparable highway exposure is sought. By comparison, in popular nodes like Longmeadow and Linbro Park, land now trades at R350/m2 or more, with prime highway-fronting sites trading from R380/m2 to R400/m2.
Midrand's relative affordability should rapidly change as the strip is seeing new developments and limited land supply will create a premium in due course. As a node that has a wide variety of supply as well as propensity for combining light industrial and office, the market should continue improving.
Industrial supply indicators at a national level confirm that industrial property investment is growing strongly and supports the fixed investment sentiment emanating from the manufacturing survey in general. City Deep and Kaserne to the southeast of the CBD play a critical role in the economy of Gauteng.
Forty percent of all cargo exported from the Durban port originates in the area. The infrastructure development process around the terminal is well under way with three roads identified as priority areas.
Brownfield industrial complexes such as City Deep/Kaserne face competition from their more modern counterparts located along the city's freeway system to the north and east of Greater Johannesburg.
The City and Service Delivery
The demographics of the city, and how they are changing over time, are important indicators for measuring service delivery and human development. Strong migratory inflows into an area, over and above the internal population growth, can have a considerable impact on the delivery of social services.
The increase in the number of people living in Johannesburg stretches the ability of the City to deliver in terms of services and infrastructure.
Johannesburg's population increased by 22,2 percent over the period 1996 to 2001 compared to the national average of 10,3 percent. Johannesburg's success in creating jobs and the relatively high incomes of its inhabitants are acting as a magnet for people all over the country.
A growth in the number of households that is more rapid than population growth has significant implications for service delivery and infrastructure development, since many services are delivered to households, rather than to individuals. Good examples of these are electricity connections, indoor plumbing and housing.
Although the population growth rate was 22.2 percent, the number of households in the city increased by 39 percent, a ratio of 0,57, suggesting that household formation is increasing at roughly double the pace at which the population is growing. This places enormous pressure on delivery of services and infrastructure.
This challenge is predictable in a developing country going through an extended period of economic growth and real increases in personal income. As the income of the poorer part of the population increases, so the prevalence of large households (more than six) starts to decrease. In this way the population growth/household growth ratio can be seen as an indicator of development.
Certain poorer areas such as Doornkop/Soweto have shown a particularly strong increase in household formation. This puts even greater pressure on service delivery since the poorer the area the more dependent the inhabitants are on the public sector to provide services. In this situation it is difficult for service delivery to keep pace with the sub-division of households into separate units and this makes the provision of formal housing to all households in many respects a moving target.
The relationship between the household ratio/ranking and changes in the area's population is an important one. The poorest area of Johannesburg (Ennerdale/Orange Farm) is also the area that added the highest number of people - just over 115,000. Doornkop/Soweto showed the third highest absolute increase in population (just over 83 000), but is the third poorest. In fact the six poorest areas showed a population increase of 348 861, compared to just 210 106 for the five richest. (The middle area is Diepsloot/ Fourways, with a relatively low absolute increase).
This suggests that a significant number of migrants into the city have limited resources and assets at their disposal and so are moving to the poorer areas with the lowest infrastructure levels. Poorer migrants are likely to place relatively high demands on the City for delivery of services. The demographic profile of migrants moving into the city is critically important in these terms, and in terms of skills levels - which to some extent dictate the ease with which migrants may or may not be absorbed into the mainstream economy.
The poorest region, which has also had the highest absolute population increase, is Ennerdale/Orange Farm, where the number of formal dwellings increased by more than 100 percent from 1996 to 2001. In addition, the number of new formal dwellings (30 331) was markedly higher than the additional number of employed people in the area (21 412). This suggests a significant contribution made by the public sector in the provision of housing. At the same time, the number of non-formal housing units rose by more than 14 000, to just under 50 000 units. Consequently, despite the efforts of the pubic sector in creating a significant number of new housing units in an economically depressed area, the number of people without formal housing has increased by 40 percent.
Access to electricity is a key factor in improving standards of living and an examination of data indicates a similar pattern. From 1996 to 2001, almost 30 000 additional households in the Ennerdale/Orange Farm area had access to electricity (a 58 percent increase). Once again, the demographics of the area suggest that this was due to the intervention of the public sector rather than the inhabitants themselves.
Over the same period, the number of households without access to electricity increased by more than 16 000. In 2001, an additional 13 000 households in this region had only candles as a source of lighting in their households. This was despite a massive increase in delivery by the authorities.
The point is made again when the Doornkop/Soweto region is examined. There has been a 36 percent increase (more than 40 000) in the number of households with electricity. However, the number of households without electricity or solar power has also increased - by more than 9 000 households and the number of households with access only to candles rose by more than 7 000. Although eventually the pace of delivery will catch up with the pace at which migration swells the city's population, this may take a long time and is affected by the funds available. Additionally, fast tracking of housing and other services is likely to increase migration to the city rather than decrease it, certainly in the short to medium term.
Johannesburg is not the only city demonstrating this phenomenon. Other metros experience the same general ratio between population and household growth. This is a clear indication of fairly rapid urbanisation in South Africa, across all areas, in that the rate of household growth is higher than population growth in these metros.
However, the fact that Johannesburg recorded the highest absolute increase in population as well as the highest increase in the number of households (more than 280 000 compared to 208 000 for neighbouring Ekurhuleni), suggests that the city is facing much larger service delivery challenges than other metros.
It is clear that despite a higher absolute increase in households than other metros, Johannesburg is coping fairly well with these demands relative to other areas. The City has a particularly good relative score in the provision of formal housing and water. All of South Africa's major metros face the challenge of rolling out services at a rate that can keep pace with the very rapid increase in the number of households demanding those services.
Conclusion
Since 1994 Johannesburg has made remarkable progress in many key areas, such as economic growth and personal income.
It has been the most important source of job creation in the country and, excluding the effect of significant migration to the city, most indicators show that the quality of life for most of Johannesburg's inhabitants has improved markedly.
While there are still significant challenges ahead, not least of which is to be able to match the pace of service delivery to household growth, the city has built an excellent and solid platform to build on over the next few years.
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